First Armistice Day Review

An 8 out of 10 from the POD People! Read the full review here.

\_/
DED

My Music Library - 1972

1972 didn’t pack the wallop that 1971 did. While it had its share of classic albums, the volume of greatness was diminished. At least, that’s how it looks from over here.

The cultural impact of the 60’s came to an end. The Summer of Love had long since faded away in the miasma of the ghettos and failed hippy communes. The Boomers realized that Peace and Love didn’t pay the bills, and thus had to get jobs.

The drugs carried on though. While they were said to expand the horizons of artistic expression in the 60’s, all they represented in the 70’s (and the 80’s) was the hedonism of rock stardom. Having already claimed the lives of Hendrix, Morrison, Joplin and many others, they would go on to wreck the careers of those they didn’t consume.

Black Sabbath was a case in point. Success made drugs and alcohol all too accessible for the band members. As they went into the studio to record their fourth album, Bill Ward’s drug use was so great, it’s a miracle he survived. “Snowblind” is a track on the album that makes the now obvious cocaine reference. It was also supposed to be the name of the album, but the record company chickened out and renamed it Volume 4. But as there was no Volume 1, 2 or 3, it really didn’t make sense. Maybe they were going for a Led Zeppelin 4 marketing riff.

Neil Young sang about “The Needle and the Damage Done” on Harvest. Songs like “Heart of Gold” and “Old Man” spurred the album’s sales but, for me, there really isn’t much else to listen to.

ZZ Top wallowed around with the Blues in Rio Grande Mud. David Bowie, when he wasn’t hanging with the Mott The Hoople crowd, became the cosmic glammer Ziggy Stardust and told of us of The Rise And Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders From Mars. The Eagles, Styx and Blue Oyster Cult released their eponymous debuts. Steely Dan also got their start with Can’t Buy A Thrill.

Occasionally, I’ll pick up the greatest hits album from a band if all I know (and like) is their material from the radio. Then, if I really like it, I’ll go back and explore their catalog to see if I can find some hidden gems. Sometimes it works. Other times, it doesn’t.

I liked Steely Dan’s collection A Decade of Steely Dan. So when BMG followed Columbia House into oblivion, I picked up a few albums cheap. This exploration mission was a bust. I’ve discovered that I only like their singles. From Can’t Buy A Thrill, that means “Do It Again”, “Dirty Work” and “Reelin’ In The Years.” The other stuff is just run of the mill 70’s studio dreck.

I liked Jethro Tull’s compilation Living In The Past, but I haven’t really explored much of their catalog. Thick as a Brick also came out in 1972, but I don’t really have strong feelings for it. It’s one of those albums where Ian Anderson just sounds too smart for the rest of us and he’s letting us know it.

But back to bands making their debut.

The Scorpions (yes, them) released Lonesome Crow. Long before they were rocking us like hurricanes, they wandered around Germany trying to pick up on the beat vibe in their own way. By 1972, they found their way into the studio. What they came up with was a long way removed from the music that would help them fill arenas, but the foundation was there: solid guitar riffs and dynamic vocals.

Yes squeezed two albums out this year: Fragile and Close to the Edge. Fragile built upon the success and song stylings of The Yes Album, however, keyboardist Tony Kaye departed the group and was replaced by Rick Wakeman. Why? Well, the story goes that Kaye wasn’t a big fan of the Moog synthesizer and other modern keyboards. Wakeman was not only proficient at it but his technical chops were more advanced. As such, he was able to bring up the level of play of the bands keyboards to that of its bass and guitar players.

The opening track, “Roundabout”, was also the lead single. Coupled with “Long Distance Runaround”, the album brought in new fans that hadn’t jumped aboard the Yes train with their previous work. I don’t know why exactly. While Classic Rock Radio had fully embraced The Yes Album which had several songs that got airplay, maybe back in the day radio stations were slow to come around to it due to the length of the songs.

Besides the two singles, “South Side of the Sky” and “Heart of the Sunrise” round out the long tracks on the album and they are great. The band each had their solo pieces to highlight their skills. Even Jon Anderson experimented with the multi-track vocals on “We Have Heaven.”

Oh and Roger Dean did the album artwork, the first of many for Yes.

The band would take the long song concept to the next level on Close to the Edge. The title track is almost 19 minutes long (a whole album side) with the other two (“And You and I” and “Siberian Khartru”) clocking in at about 10 and 9 minutes. Being able to ignore the tyranny of radio, the band were afforded the opportunity to explore the bounds of progressive rock. Well, it still had to fit on a side of vinyl (or pause like Thick As A Brick).

While the music is exceptional, with twists and turns in dynamics and progression, the lyrics wander into obtuse mystical babble. If one thinks of Anderson’s vocals as just another instrument accompanying the medley rather than trying to decipher their meaning (without the aid of Eastern philosophy), then one can just enjoy an otherwise excellent album.

Deep Purple reached the pinnacle of the their career with Machine Head. It serves as one of the foundation stones for hard rock and metal. It's chock full of blistering riffs, driving beats and soaring vocals. And it's a great album to play along to (assuming you can keep up). "Smoke on the Water" has to be one of the most popular songs that aspiring guitarists cut their teeth on.

The album opens with "Highway Star". The listener is thrown into the back seat to cling for dear life as Blackmore's guitar and Lord's keyboards race down a wide open road trying to outrun the other. Ian Gillian's vocals scream in overhead while Glover and Paice bring the engines to life. It's all freedom, fast cars and faster women and what could be better than that.

After the breakneck pace of the opener, the listener gets to take a breather with "Maybe I'm a Leo", a bluesy number. "Pictures of Home" picks up the pace with soliloquy of some poor chap marooned in some distant, cold land. Blackmore and Lord take turns with some great solos. Glover is given a chance to show his skills while Paice adds in some nice fills here and there. After a funky intro, "Never Before" moves into an upbeat parlance though Gillan croons about how a woman stomped all over him, "She took my name, she took my body, then she threw away my soul."

Everyone knows "Smoke on the Water", a song telling the tale of how the album came to be made. For a song that barely made the cut, it's ironic that it became such a big hit. That opening guitar riff is a chunka chunka monster.

Jon Lord's shows off his keyboard chops at the opening of "Lazy". The rest of the band pick up the beat and the whole thing evolves into this great up tempo blues rock number. Vocals are minimal and don't show up until midway through the seven minute number, but Gillan uses the brief spot to shine, as well as lay down a harmonica solo.

The album closes with "Space Truckin'", a sci-fi romp through the heavens. While the lyrics weren't anything to trip to, they got the job done. The driving chorus with Gillan imploring the listener "Let's go space truckin'" while the music cascades down scale with a grinding sound that recalls rocket laden semis barreling their way through the solar system.

A live album, Made in Japan, followed. It's a must have for Deep Purple fans who either never got to see this lineup of the band or want to have something to remember them by. The tough part will be deciding which version to get: the 1, 2 or 3 CD version.

\_/
DED

The Doomsday Channel

When The History Channel first started in the 90's, people joked that it was "The Hitler Channel" due to its perpetual broadcasts of documentaries about World War Two and the evil dictator. I don't know if that was due to the dearth of non-WW2 documentary programs (which I doubt) or more to do with our culture's fascination with the despot.

During this time period we saw the emergence of Hitler accusations in our political culture. The first Hitler reference that I can recall was Bush The Elder likening Saddam Hussein to him when the Bastard from Baghdad rolled over Kuwait. Ten years later, every politician and his (or her) favorite pundit was comparing someone to Hitler or his 1939 appeasers.

But now The History Channel (it likes to just be called History these days) has moved most of that stuff off to The Military History Channel, a channel I don't have. Except for the occasional run of Band of Brothers or a rundown of the presidents, history doesn't factor into much of its programming. Instead we have decidedly non-historical fare like Ax Men, Pawn Stars and Ice Road Truckers.

We also have MonsterQuest, a show about cryptozoology, and UFO Hunters, which you can figure out from the title. One can make the argument that both of these shows have a smidgen of history in them. MonsterQuest investigates whether mythical creatures ever existed and pores through historical records to find them. UFO Hunters kind of does the same thing except the targets are aliens. Yes, I know it's a stretch.

The network's saving graces are How The Earth Was Made and The Universe. These two shows deal with geological and cosmic history respectively. Neither is what I'd expect but they're still very good shows.

But what bugs me about The History Channel is its obsession with the end of history. The end of the world. Long before that 2012 movie came out, The History Channel was trumpeting our doom with documentaries about the end of the Mayan Calendar, Nostradamus, The Bible Code, and every other documentary about prophets and potential catastrophes. With the release of the movies, the frequency of these shows has only increased.

Now showing these shows on occasion would probably be ok. But the constant drumbeat of doom is too much. For instance, take Life After People. The premise of the show is this is what the world looks like if people suddenly disappear. They couple CGI with real world examples to make their case. But it's Ozymandias over and over again. You don't need to watch more than one show to get it, yet I believe that it's going into its third season.

Then there's the doomsday documentaries. The Mayan Calendar, the Bible, Nostradamus and a slew of others are trotted out before us to weigh in with their dire warnings. They even drag bona fide scientists in to describe the effects of say, an asteroid impact or a plague to lend credibility to the whole mess. But in no case does an asteroid impact, gamma ray burst, solar flare, magnetic pole reversal, or polar shift bring about our extinction in these prophecies. They all describe how humanity suffers terribly, but endures. That's not to say that were these things to occur, they'd be nothing short of extinction level events. But you can't mix prophecy with them because all the prophecies say that life goes on.

However, the producers of these extinction orgies cherry pick their prophecy pieces. While they're quick to point out that the fifth cycle of the Mayan Calendar comes to an end on the Winter Solstice of 2012, it's just the end of the cycle. The Mayans note that as each cycle ends, there's tremendous upheaval. But the calendar doesn't end: a new cycle begins.

As terrible as the Book of Revelations is in the Bible, it has a happy ending: Christ lives with us and wipes all our suffering away. Even Nostradamus's prediction of the rise of the third Antichrist and the oncoming third world war doesn't wipe out the planet or our species. He forecasts a happy ending with a thousand years of peace to follow the conclusion of those terrible times.

I wonder what's the point of these doomsayers anyway. If they're right, are they going to go around and gloat? "See? I was right! The world is ending!" Is that something you'd really want to brag about? In humanity's last hour, that's not going to make you all that popular. You might not even live to see the last moment. It must be short term gain.

I have to imagine that these shows are pulling in the viewers. Why else would they keep showing them? Our culture seems obsessed with its own demise, whether it's mere entertainment or paranoid bunker builder inspiration. So the doom and gloom producers get rich and/or famous in the short run and hide away in some cabana in the tropics hoping that their predictions don't come true.

So will the doomsday phenomenon grow, especially now with its own channel (books and movies aren't enough!) running the end of the world on a nightly basis? When 2012 runs around, will the hysteria about the end of the world become self-fulfilling? As long as the Doomsday Channel continues, I think the phenomenon will grow.

In the meantime, I'll change the channel. Adult Swim is more fun anyway.

\_/
DED

Two Short Stories

I like short stories. I believe Stephen King once likened reading them to one night stands while novels were more being married. I think the analogy fits (especially in his case), if you don't look too hard at it. I can read a short story in an evening before bed while a novel will often take me months (lack of time, fatigue, other lame excuses).

Then again, maybe he was talking about writing them. Anyway, recommended stories for your snowed in weekend.

Do you remember the movie, The Thing, back in the 80's? It was John Carpenter's remake of a 50's flick and starred Kurt Russel. If you do, and you're a fan of it, read "The Things" by Peter Watts. It's the story from The Thing's perspective, as only a biologist turned writer could tell it. (TotH: Scalzi)

For a lighter look at Cthulu, try "I Cthulu" by Neil Gaiman. It's either an old favorite or hidden gem, depending on how much of a Gaiman fan you are. Thanks to Edward Morris for sending it my way.

And this is probably the coolest ski mask ever.

\_/
DED

Armistice Day is published

My novel, Armistice Day, is now published.

Currently available at Lulu in print and eBook formats. No word yet when it will appear on Amazon and Barnes & Noble.

I understand the desire to "try before you buy." Therefore, I'm offering the
first three chapters for free (PDF). I'd rather lose sales than have disgruntled buyers.

It is done. Now I can move on. :)

UPDATE 1/5/10: Armistice Day is now on Amazon.

\_/
DED

The December 2009 Issue of The Magazine of Fantasy & Science Fiction

When I heard that the venerable Magazine of Fantasy & Science Fiction was offering free copies to bloggers to review their December 2009 issue, I jumped at the chance. However, I wasn’t expecting 258 pages (four novelettes and seven short stories) so I’ve been tardy in keeping up my end. For that, I apologize.

I admit that my expectations dimmed when I saw the cover. F&SF have had some great covers in the past. This one, meant to accompany the feature novelette, “Hell of a Fix”, didn’t work for me. It would be more relevant for a Halloween issue. Nor did it seem to have any relation to the story’s content.

The first story, “Dragon’s Teeth,” did nothing to improve my outlook. It seemed like it was going to be a formulaic sword and sorcery story: hero performs quest, gets desired woman, they live happily ever after. While I was relieved it didn’t follow that formula, it seemed to follow another formula: hero performs quest, falls in love with better woman than the one that inspired said quest, they live happily ever after. But that didn’t happen either. And I have to say that what we got I didn’t much care for either.

I don’t know if the author, Alex Irvine, was intentionally trying to shatter either formula, but what we got wasn’t so hot. Mr. Irvine set us up for several potential conflicts, but he denied satisfactory resolution. The one involving the titular dragon was seen through a hazy flashback. Others, involving a murder and a spirit who possesses the protagonist, seemed to be red herrings. And the ending reminded me of “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock.” While technically not an accurate comparison, the main character’s inability to break out of social convention for a chance at love just seemed pathetic.

“Bad Matter,” by Alexandra Duncan, concerned a young woman with a doctorate in linguistics who receives a letter intended for her late father. As the story takes place in the distant future, she is surprised that the letter is written on actual paper. The letter is an invitation to come aboard a starship to see a woman named Ete. The letter is written in a dialect that comes across as Jamaican (to me) and thus makes its content cryptic.

The author’s suggestion that linguistic divergence is just as possible in cultural isolation as genetic drift is in isolated species here on Earth was an unanticipated treasure. While this, coupled with footnotes from future anthropology publications, made for a refreshing story, for all the built up tension felt by the protagonist, the climax of the story left me feeling let down. More precisely: “That’s it?” While the short story falls short, I find the universe that the author has conjured quite intriguing. I hope she revisits it someday in longer form.

The next two stories, “Farewell Atlantis” by Terry Bisson and “Hell of a Fix” by Matthew Hughes, lightened things up a bit. The former starts off with a man and a woman in a tiny movie theater who realize they can’t remember anything before they sat down to watch the movie. The author takes us on a humorous ride as the two characters slowly recover their memories thanks to a computer prone to boredom.

In “Hell of a Fix”, we meet Chesney Arnstruther, a rather dull fellow who spends his working hours as an actuary. He’s thrilled that he’s become a regular in his co-workers’ poker games, due to his penchant for always losing. It’s his turn to play host, but while setting up for the evening’s game, despite the improbable odds, he accidentally summons a demon. The two begin to argue over what the demon will grant to Chesney in exchange for his soul but our protagonist is steadfast in his refusal to enter into negotiations. His soul simply isn’t for sale.

Author Matthew Hughes writes a delightful tale taking Chesney’s argument for his innocence and extrapolates how this upsets the business of Hell.

Two of the next three stories deal with living on the Moon and how it might not be as glamorous as one might think. “Illusions of Tranquility,” by Brendan DuBois, sketches a Moon colony living by the seat of its pants with everyone required to go above and beyond the call of duty to ensure that wealthy tourists have a good time. The protagonist does her part to maintain the illusion and sell trinkets to a nostalgia afflicted visitor. Scruples be damned.

And if readers shudder at Mr. DuBois’ vision of a Moon colony, “The Economy of Vacuum,” by Sarah Thomas, will leave them feeling even awful. Virginia Rickles is the first person to live on the Moon. After the 24-hour news channels lose interest in the novelty and VIP’s no longer visit, she realizes she’s on her own.

“The Blight Family Singers,” by Kit Reed, is sandwiched between the two Moon stories. It’s about a musical family on a comeback tour playing at a college’s Winter Festival whose dark past and present are threatening to overtake them. The author tells the story from the viewpoint of several characters, each unique in personality and perspective. Each of them has bite and purpose. It’s a shame this story wasn’t longer.

“Iris,” by Nancy Springer, is a sad tale about an old woman surrounded by death on Christmas. While it could’ve been just a tear jerker with a sugary happy ending, it won’t let you get there without walking barefoot through a room of thumbtacks. If the author and F&SF will forgive me, here’s a line that I thought said a lot: “Lonely is when you buy postage stamps one at a time, so when there’s something to mail you can walk to the post office and talk to somebody.”

“Inside Time,” by Tim Sullivan, offers a unique look at time travel, but I’ve seen the plot too many times before.

Harvey Jacobs offers us a pair of good characters in “The Man Who Did Something About It.” Colin Cabe is the best mechanic on the planet but his reputation goes even further. The humorous tale he tells about his run in with a little lady named “Lullaby” with engine trouble is cute.

The issue ends with “I Needs Must Part, the Policeman Said” by Richard Bowes. While not autobiographical per se, it’s more of a fictionalized incident from his life. Terribly ill, he’s forced to check into St. Vincent’s hospital where he’s stalked by a policeman in his dreams. The policeman accuses Bowes of crimes that only take place in his dreams. As his dream world and hallucinogenic reality blend together, Bowes feels threatened that one day he’ll wake up and he won’t be the man he once was, assuming he wakes up at all. It’s a poignant story of a man coming to grips with his own mortality and sanity.

In summary, I’d have to say this was a good read. After a rough start, I was treated to some really good stories. As the magazine market struggles to deal with the Scylla and Charybdis of the costs of operating in the Great Recession and the wide availability of free quality content on the Internet, it isn’t certain that the 61-year old Magazine of Fantasy & Science Fiction will survive. But I certainly wouldn’t bet against them.

\_/
DED

The New Space Opera

The New Space Opera is an anthology of short stories by some of the best sci-fi writers today. I picked up the first issue of this series (released in 2007) earlier this year. It's a 515 page tome containing 18 stories, edited by the venerable Gardner Dozois and Jonathan Strahan.

What is space opera? It's one of those things that you know it when you see it. In the "good old days" of science fiction, it characterized most of what was produced: fanciful, oftentimes melodramatic, stories with epic settings, heroic action and technology that may not be grounded in reality. The writers of Ancient Greece would be comfortable with space opera. Star Wars is certainly space opera, but Star Trek is not. The term was considered derogatory for some time as the genre wallowed in the toilet. But in recent years, it’s enjoyed a resurgence as quality has returned minus some of the absurdities.

Since I hold no illusions as to being current with the sci-fi book scene, I thought that this collection would expose me to new (to me) writers while getting to savor new treats from familiar favorites.

Rating System:
5 Excellent
4 Very Good
3 Good
2 Fair
1 Poor
0 Awful

“Saving Tiamaat” by Gwyneth Jones - 2
“Verthandi’s Ring” by Ian McDonald - 2
“Hatch” by Robert Reed - 4
“Winning Peace” by Paul J. McAuley - 3
“Glory” by Greg Egan - 3
“Maelstorm” by Kage Baker - 5
“Blessed by an Angel” by Peter F. Hamilton - 5
“Who’s Afraid of Wolf 359?” by Ken Macleod - 4
“The Valley of the Gardens” by Tony Daniel - 5
“Dividing the Sustain” by James Patrick Kelly - 4
“Minla’s Flowers” by Alastair Reynolds - 5
“Splinters of Glass” by Mary Rosenblum - 5
“Remembrance” by Stephen Baxter - 4
“The Emperor and the Maula” by Robert Silverberg - 4
“The Worm Turns” by Greg Benford - 4
“Send Them Flowers” by Walter Jon Williams - 4
“Art of War” by Nancy Kress - 4
“Muse of Fire” by Dan Simmons - 5

The first two stories, “Saving Tiamaat” and “Verthandi’s Ring”, left me cold. I really didn’t connect with them, though the former ended well. The latter was so far in the future with vast time scales and god like technology that it seemed like I was reading mythology. After going 0 for 2, I was afraid that I might’ve made a mistake in picking up this book.

But the third story, “Hatch” by Robert Reed, got me. The story is the latest in a series of tales which take place on an alien constructed, Jupiter-sized starship circumnavigating the galaxy. Humans, and many other aliens, are just along for the ride.

“Winning Peace” and “Glory” were solid stories. The former dealt with a post-interstellar war treasure hunt while the latter concerned an archaeological dig on an alien world in the midst of a cold war threatening to turn hot.

Things took a turn for the better after that.

“Maelstorm” is about the amusing misadventures of a production company on Mars performing a retro form of entertainment known as “plays.”

There’s nothing amusing about the diabolical exploits of the titular character in “Blessed by an Angel.” It brought the promise of immortality, but the price was one’s soul. And “no” really wasn’t an answer it wanted to hear.

“Who’s Afraid of Wolf 359?” takes the clever play on words and runs with it.

“The Valley of the Gardens”, one of a few stories in which humanity gets its ass handed to it, skillfully pits bioengineered humans versus an extra-universal lifeform that achieved sentience when the universe only contained subatomic particles.

“Dividing the Sustain” is another amusing tale in which humans re-engineer themselves with strange physical characteristics to avoid becoming stale.

“Minla’s Flowers” shows that no matter how hard you try to save a world from destruction, you inevitably wind up destroying it. Good intentions and roads to brimstone destinations and all that. It’s such a good story that it convinced me to go out and buy Alastair Reynolds’ novel Revelation Space.

“Splinters of Glass” is an excellent tale of intrigue and love beneath the ice on Europa.

“Remembrance” is another Earth’s ass gets brutally kicked story. The problem is, no one remembers it. Well, one guy does.

“The Emperor and the Maula” is a bit gentler in its ass kicking of Earth. Humor salves the wound though. In order to save our world, a woman seeks an audience with the Emperor. But as Earth is considered barbaric, barbarians are to be executed upon setting foot upon the capitol world.

Corporations will always be up to shenanigans. Hostile takeovers for competitors will go on, whether the prize is greater telecom market share or wormholes. In “The Worm Turns” a plucky woman is sent out to traverse a wormhole before someone else can snatch away the rights to it.

“Send Them Flowers” lets us know that the laws of physics may change from one to universe to the next but love triangles are still messy.

History shows us that you can learn a lot about a culture by studying its art. In “Art of War” the same holds true for aliens, but whoever heard of soldiers as artists?

“Muse of Fire” ends the book on a spectacular note. A Shakespearean production company is tasked with performing various works of the Great Bard for humanity’s alien overlords. The performance of the work will determine whether our species lives or dies.

All in all, this is a great collection of stories that will please most sci-fi fans. Hard sci-fi purists are the only group that I don’t see enjoying this anthology. I’ll have to pick up volume two and see what great tales Messrs Dozois and Strahan have gathered for us to read.

\_/
DED

Old Man's War

The first of three planned sci-fi book review posts.

When I first read the title, I thought rather cynically, "Aren't all wars old man wars? Who ever heard of twenty-year olds starting wars?" But I pressed on and read the back cover.

John Perry did two things on his seventy-fifth birthday. First he visited his wife's grave. Then he joined the army.

That got my attention.

In turns out, the Colonial Defense Forces (CDF) want old people rather than young people so as to make use of their 75 years of life experience and skills. To work around the physical limitations of their septuagenarian bodies, the CDF downloads their consciousness into new, cloned bodies. You just have to commit to two years of service. After that, you can muster out and get the futuristic equivalent of 40 acres and a mule on one of Earth's new offworld colonies.

Unfortunately, most recruits don't survive the two years. The galaxy is a very dangerous place.

We follow John Perry as he befriends his fellow new recruits, becomes familiar with his new, enhanced body complete with BrainPal (think a wetware version of an iPod but ten times better), goes through basic training ("Nukes are for pussies!") and eventually his first taste of combat.

While this could just be a military sci-fi story, it is not. The CDF is just a vehicle to carry Scalzi's story along. The real focus is on Perry and his small band of friends and how they adapt to their strange new surroundings. And just as Perry successfully acclimates to his new life, he receives a surprise from his old life that throws everything out of whack.

Scalzi's writing has been likened to Robert Heinlein. However, Scalzi's style is complementary rather than imitative. Fans of the old master will appreciate this new story. I loved it, finding it very hard to put it down each night. I finished it in no time at all. I look forward to reading the rest of the series.

\_/
DED

The Quiet Sun

Climate skeptics have been crowing lately over the less than broiling summer we've had this year and last. It's true that this summer has been average to slightly under in temperatures, and it's continued over into the Fall (Miami's current record setting heat wave notwithstanding). But to say this summer's temperatures disprove global warming is short-sighted at best, foolish ignorance at worst.

To assume that temperatures are going to conform to nice predictable graphs is a mistake. Temperatures vary. Even average temperatures. There's a parallel here to the stock market. Any investor who has a clue knows that the stock market is up one day and down the next. The key is to know what the long term trends are. There are up days in a bear market just as there are down days in a bull market. Earth's average temperatures and climate work in the same way.

There is no denying that the number one factor for Earth's climate is the sun. Were the sun to be 5% hotter, we'd all be clamoring for real estate in Antarctica. If the reverse happened, they'd be selling snow blowers in Rio.

People tend to think of the sun's output as constant, but it isn't. The sun's output varies along an 11 year cycle, known as the solar cycle. Over this period the sun's output will vary by 0.1% from average. The telltale sign of solar activity is the number of sunspots visible on its surface. At its most vigorous, sunspot sightings are numerous and frequent. When the sun is quiet, sunspots are few and far between. Sometimes days will pass between sightings.

What does that mean for us? Well, during the years of high activity, the Earth receives more energy and is warmer than in years of little activity. And we can chart it with a roughly sinusoidal curve. If you guessed that we're currently in the quiet part of the cycle, you're a smart cookie.



That doesn't mean carbon dioxide levels don't matter. They do. We know from the fossil record that CO₂ levels have varied throughout history. When levels are high, average temperatures rise and when they fall so do temperatures. Combine this with the solar cycle and you can get some serious highs and lows. What high levels of carbon dioxide do is shift the temperature curve up.

Let's say that normal temperature variation is plus or minus 2 degrees over the span of a solar cycle. What high levels of carbon dioxide do is change that variation. Instead of being +2, you're now looking at +3. Instead of -2, you're looking at -1. And if those levels continue to rise, they shift upward again. +4 and 0.

Now those numbers aren't exact by any stretch of the imagination. I'm just trying to illustrate a principle here. There are plenty of other factors involved. Our atmosphere is awfully turbulent and complex. Volcanic eruptions, dust storms and pollution complicate things. What climate scientists are trying to accurately predict are the long term trends.

Being a Weather Channel junkie, I've noticed that a lot of record high temperatures took place in the late 50's. It just so happens that at this time we were going through a solar maximum. And we haven't had peaks quite that high since, though the late 90's came close.

As I mentioned above, we're currently in the quiet part of the solar cycle. The problem is, the sun seems to be stuck. The solar minimum has held sway for a couple of years now. The sun should've snapped out of it by now. Unfortunately, astronomers don't know why it hasn't.

While we don't have anything to worry about right now, if it continues for another year or two I'd be concerned. Why? Well, take a look at that chart again. Notice that section where the solar cycle all but flatlines? They call that the Maunder Minimum. It took place from 1645 to 1715, which coincides with the worst years of the Little Ice Age.

There's plenty of debate still going on as to the causes of the Little Ice Age. It could very well be the cumulative effect of several factors of which the Maunder Minimum is but one. But if we were to experience another one, I wonder how much CO₂ emissions would offset the diminished solar output.

If you're intrigued by our sun's quiet time, check out Solar Cycle 24 or NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). In the meantime, better bundle up. I think it's going to be cold this winter.

\_/
DED

Ron Paul on The Daily Show

The interview went very well. Ron Paul hit many high points and even conceded that nothing's perfect (thus demonstrating he's no fanatic). And I believe that Jon Stewart was swayed. It's a good, rational discussion (for the 8+ minutes allotted) and Stewart holds up his end. It's too bad they didn't get to spend more time on it.

If you didn't see it, watch it now.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Ron Paul
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Ron Paul Interview

\_/
DED