Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Remembering Spring

Yeah, I know we're in the Dog Days of Summer, but I don't care. I'm trying to get caught up on pictures I've taken this year but I'm also in a really foul mood. So, rather than kill things in a video game or spew vitriol here, I've decided to post some pictures from Spring that are a total 180 from my mood. This way, balance is temporarily restored to the ever maddening universe. Enjoy.









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DED

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Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Offshore Drilling

Oh, you know it's coming. I'm sure you've heard that W has lifted the Executive branch ban on offshore drilling. It's only a matter of time before the Democrats in Congress cave in too. I caught something earlier today on CNBC. The Republican congressman was well versed in the rhetoric. He even used acronyms. "OCS" for Outer Continental Shelf. Yeah, like anyone outside the oil industry uses that term. Big Oil's going to win this one.

Do I need to rehash the rhetoric? Why not, right? We ignored the oil embargoes and gas lines of the 70's. When cheap oil and gas returned, we couldn't be bothered to plan for a post-oil world, let alone strive for energy independence from the most volatile and oppressive region in the world. As oil rose, we were assuaged with "oh, it's just a bubble." And still it climbed. And there are people who still claim it'll get back down to $20. 1 year ago oil was $73/barrel. Have we learned from any of this? While some of us have, an overwhelming majority have not. We were complacent. Now, we've got $125 - $140 oil (depending on the day).

It's hard to argue against those who say that we're going to war to get oil cheaper. We've got oil men running the country, both literally and figuratively. Iraq, although its invasion has several theories, certainly looks that way now that its oil production is back up to two million barrels/day. And there are idiots who think we should knock out Iran just to lower the price of oil. Yes, that's it. Resource wars.

But Iraq has proven too costly for our military (let alone our Treasury). Soldiers and equipment are worn out and will require lots of tax dollars to repair and replace. We need something easier, cheaper. Let's start drilling offshore on America's continental shelf! It'll knock down the price of oil in say five to ten years (maybe) and we can wrap the flag around it! Let's lower our dependency on foreign oil! Drill more here! As you know, W has already led the charge. Presidential candidates, major and minor, are following suit.

A few brave souls are willing to state that we can't drill our way out of this mess. T. Boone Pickens, a former oilman, spoke on NPR (the text leaves out portions of the audio) about running cars on natural gas while building wind farms to generate electricity. While I don't share his optimism about wind power carrying a lot of the load, I certainly believe that it has a place at the energy table. It's a far better idea than ethanol, which people finally seem to realize (once food prices skyrocketed) is a bad idea.

It may be that an oilman will be the one to convince America to give up the stuff.

In the meantime, Congress plans on doing something to help. The last time they tried to help, it resulted in escalating food prices. I used to average $80/week on groceries. 4 of the last 5 weeks have been over $100.

If we're really lucky, included in the legislation will be tremendous amounts of regulation, like the nuclear power industry has. The sort that requires lots of high tech equipment that seeks to prevent the loss of any oil. Technology hasn't been at a standstill these last few decades kiddies. Since the days of cheap oil are gone, every barrel is sacred to the oil companies and they're not about to let any go now.

Don't take that to mean I'm in favor of offshore drilling. I'm not. I'm a realist and I know that the Democrats will cave. They couldn't protect the Constitution from this administration so why should I believe that they'll protect our coasts from oil development.

My point is that we missed our chance to mandate the use of clean coal technology, I'd hate for Congress to blow another opportunity.

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DED

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Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Stay-At-Home Pariah

I don't blog much about being a stay-at-home Dad. It would bore me to no end and I'd imagine that the few readers I have would share similar sentiments. However, I seem to have a semi-request from Scarlet Blue over at Jonestown to share a "Mom's Club" story.

But first, a little background....

I never thought that I would be a stay-at-home parent. I envisioned a life of working in laboratories or manufacturing plants putting my chemical engineering degree to good (or ill) use. After my career change to web development, I expected that I would have to go back to some sort of chemical work after a few years. I knew it was going to be short-lived but I didn't expect becoming a stay-at-home parent.

Neither my wife or I wanted to have our babies raised by strangers. While we understand that many parents need two or more incomes to get by and daycare is a necessity, that fortunately wasn't us. We could afford to have one of us stay home to take care of the kids. And at $10,000+ per kid per year, day care seemed a poor fiscal choice. At the time, Mrs. DED was making 30% more than me (it's much higher now). We agreed (she reluctantly) that I would be the one to stay home. I could freelance for some extra money (this would turn out to be a joke) programming on my home pc.

Several months into parenthood, Mrs. DED suggested that I take our son out to a "Mom's Club" open house and make some friends. He and I were getting a bit stir crazy and a change would do us good. The open house was held in the basement of Town Hall (a former high school). The noise level made the room easy enough to find. I walked in to a room full of mom's and their kids, all of various ages. I was politely greeted at the door.

"Can I help you?"

"I'm here for the open house," and gestured towards my son in his car seat carrier.

"Oh. Uh, come on in. Are you new to the area?"

"No. Just to parenthood."

"Ok, well, uh these open houses enable the mom's to get together and meet new ones. Normally, we meet at our own homes for play dates."

"Ok."

"So, does your wife work?"

Duh! "Yes, she works for... as an HRIS Analyst. She handles human resources data with regards to benefits...." I watch as she nods, eyes glazing over, glancing away at friends at the other end of the room and waving to them. It's obvious she's looking to escape.

"Well, make yourself comfortable. There's stuff over there," she says, pointing to a pile of toys, "for your son to play with." When I follow where she points, she acts as if she's been summoned, "I'll be right there. Gotta go. I'll catch up with you later."

And she's gone. Didn't even ask for my name or even my son's.

I sit down with the newcomers in the middle of the room and unbuckle Alex from his car seat carrier. He's sitting up at this point, so I prop him up in front of some blocks. I look around the room and notice that I'm the only guy here. Swell.

Another new mom is near by. Her little one is starting to crawl. We say hi.

"So, are you new to the area?" she asks me. It's seems to be a popular question.

"No, I've lived here for a few years now. How about you?"

"Yeah, we just moved here from Oregon."

She's nice. We talk about our spouses, the differences between Oregon and Connecticut. The kids are playing well. Everything seems to be going along just swimmingly when one of the mom's comes over from the perimeter cliques and starts talking to her. Just her. Not me. I don't exist. Two minutes later, the club mom leads Mrs. Oregon and her child away to join her table of mom's.

"It was nice meeting you."

"Same here," I reply.

Alex and I play for another ten minutes or so when I decide to look around. All of the newcomer mom's have been scarfed up by the mom's club cliques. The mom's are all chatting away at the tables along the perimeter of the room. I'm the only parent sitting in the middle of the room with the kids and the toys. I feel spurned. A pariah. It's like I've got a scarlet D on my flannel shirt.

I look over at Alex. He's oblivious to everything but me and the blocks. I feel terrible for him. "You're not going to have any friends and it's all because of me." We sit there for another five minutes before the isolation and the din get to me. I gather up Alex and head towards the door.

A different club mom enters the room as we're leaving. She looks confused.

"Leaving already?"

"Yes." I lie. "He's gotta go down for a nap soon."

"Oh, ok. Well, we meet..." blah blah blah. She may have said something about a sign up sheet. I'm tuning her out at this point.

"Yeah, ok." And I'm gone.

Obviously, I never went back, nor did I try to find any other mom's clubs. Mrs. DED suggested trying to find a dad's club. I looked. I think I found a regional one, but I never got the nerve to go.

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DED

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Friday, July 11, 2008

What Kids Learned From Abu Ghraib

One element of W's legacy will be that young Americans now know that torture is ok. I haven't seen the video, but the local paper published the affidavit which has enough of the details for you get the idea.

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DED

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Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Ted Koppel In China

"The People's Republic of Capitalism" is Ted Koppel's next in-depth special for The Discovery Channel. It runs Wednesday through Saturday at 10PM EST. I encourage everyone to watch it as we'll get to see what's really going on over there.

We typically get dribs and drabs from the MSM and it's always got the network's slant on it. "China is taking our jobs" or "China helps keep products cheap for Americans" and so on. While these are both true, they don't tell the whole story. With Ted, we can at least expect an extensive report. Every so often, I'll mention something here, but there's no way I can read/cover it all. I expect to get schooled. :)

While some will criticize his dry delivery on Nightline, since ABC canned him, Koppel's been rejuvenated. Just check out any appearance of his on The Daily Show since then (though his most recent appearance plugging the China doc is missing from that list as I write this). He's even got a sense of humor (see "Giant Head of Ted")! The Discovery Channel has allowed him to cover whatever he wants without worrying about TV execs breathing down his neck with ratings reports. Can't have serious discussions at 11:30 at night. Nope. That's talk show time! Maybe if he'd been on Sunday mornings fighting for Tim Russert's marketshare, ABC would've kept him around.

Ok, I'm rambling. Watch "The People's Republic of Capitalism."

Follow Up
The series takes place in Chongqing, a city of 13.5 million people in southwestern China, and the surrounding countryside. The city is expected to increase in population and size to become a megacity of 25 million within the next decade.

Part 1 examined how tightly linked China's economy is to the US. While Koppel didn't point fingers, one can obviously see that the global economy and the desire for cheap products in the US is what drove businesses to send manufacturing to China. Labor is so cheap as there are too many people available to work. There is no need to automate or use machinery for many menial jobs, like rebar reclamation, as the government has a more pressing need to keep people working. The Iron Law of Wages come to fruition. But while people need Wal-Mart to get the stuff they need, they really are killing the economic future of their fellow and future Americans. We are doomed.

There is a love of American brands in China. There's a perception of quality and the prosperous Chinese are willing to pay the extra money for American cars (Black Buicks are a status symbol) and furniture, even if some to all of those products are actually manufactured in China.

But unless the Chinese workers are allowed to unionize to demand better wages (a couple of dollars a day is common), I can't see things turning around. But for every industrial worker employed now, there's an estimated 2 or 3 more in the countryside looking to get in. Expect labor protests to be broken up by the government and "scabs" brought in.

Part 2 revealed that there's a measure of cultural tolerance in China, so long as it doesn't get political. Gay bars are allowed to exist but gay pride parades are forbidden. The Catholic Church, though illegal, is tolerated so long as it stays out of politics. Falun Gong membership will get you arrested. Even prostitution is overlooked as the government realizes that it needs to permit its workers to blow off some steam from time to time.

People trust the government, for now. It keeps chaos at bay and provides stability. That's what the majority want. There is no free speech or press. They may not love their government, but they trust it to keep order. So long as everyone is making money, and some private property ownership is permitted, they'll be content with whatever the government tells them.

Part 3 expounded on China's love with the automobile, reflective of America in the 50's. In fact, China's development of its countryside will closely mirror that of our own country during that time period, complete with an interstate highway system and suburbs. It won't be long before China has more cars and asphalt than the US (est. 2030). Forget the images of thousands of blue clad workers riding bicycles to manufacturing plants post-cultural revolution. Those days are dead and gone. But to keep pace with 25,000 cars sold per day, they're going to need a lot of cheap gas.

In another year or two, Chinese car manufacturers will sell their cars here. And even American brands will be exported to the US once the capacity is there.

Part 4 talks about corruption in China and, in case you hadn't heard, it's epidemic. Anti-corruption training is given to law enforcement in attempts to reign in corrupt businessmen and government officials and foster a level of integrity within themselves so that they'll resist bribes. Operas, plays, public displays and videotaped confessionals all play a part. But, as you can surmise, it isn't working. There were 24,000 convictions in 2006 alone but it still goes on. Even the death penalty doesn't appear to be a deterrent.

Growth in Chongqing is off the charts. Old neighborhoods are being bulldozed over to make way for new apartment buildings, despite the protests of the residents of those neighborhoods. The government acknowledges that there were 87,000 protests nationwide (primarily in rural regions), but the Chinese won't see those protests on their TV's or in their newspapers because the police won't allow pictures to be taken or acknowledge that arrests are made.

While peasants are slaving away, living in run down shacks, they're trying to get their kids into boarding school for a decent education so that they don't have to follow in their parents' footsteps. Meanwhile, there are people who are clearly making tons of money. $800 belts! The government buys the homes of the poor for next to nothing and sells them to developers who make millions in construction. But that's not all. In industry, bribery is commonplace and often goes unpunished. That is, the bribers aren't punished though the bribe accepters are. That leaves the bribers free to continue to exploit those who would live within the rule of law. The government turns a blind eye to this as it must be pro-business at all cost. It doesn't want foreign investors to be scared away.

The earthquake that rocked western China this year revealed how fragile the foundation for all this growth is. How much of the destruction can be attributed to sub-standard building materials is unknown. As we learned last year, Chinese captains of industry have no qualms about sacrificing safety to maintain profits (please keep that in mind when those Chinese cars come to our market). While we often bemoan the same of American companies, they always have to worry about being sued. That doesn't happen too much in China. All an employer has to say to the Chinese government is, "If you have a problem with it, then I'll shut down and you'll have to find work for my workers." And if those numbers are in the thousands, then the government will back down. In a country where people are paid to chip mortar off of bricks, a sudden influx of unemployed workers is too bitter a pill to swallow.

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DED

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Sunday, July 06, 2008

Gas Money

Back in high school, owning a car and being able to afford the requisite insurance was your first major fiscal responsibility, unless, of course, you were one of the "preppies" whose parents paid for everything. Minimum wage, which was half of what it is today, didn't get you much. If you were lucky enough to land a retail job that paid more than the minimum, you were the envy of your fellow working teens. For example, while I was making $3.35/hour as a cashier at Morey's IGA, my friend Greg was making $5.25/hour working in the automotive department at Bradlees.

Greg owned a '74 Starfire and his mechanic skills helped keep it running. I would join him for runs to the junkyard to pick up parts. The junkyard always offered parts cheaper than buying new, though sometimes he didn't have a choice.

I didn't own a car. I was having a hard enough time paying for the insurance required for me to drive my parents' cars part time: $1500. My parents both worked so I wouldn't get to use their cars, if at all, until the weekend. So I rode shotgun in Greg's car, contributing money towards gas.

Generally, that's what people did. In terms of square mileage, New Milford is the largest town in Connecticut. A driver could easily burn up a precious gallon of gas driving along the back roads to pick up or drop off a single passenger. Passengers, grateful that they weren't stuck riding the bus or trapped at home on a Saturday night, chipped in on gas money. If you didn't, well, people thought of you as a cheapskate and the odds of you getting another ride anytime soon would be slim. A couple of bucks was pretty much what was expected. Throw in $5 and you were considered generous.

Eventually, we all got better paying jobs and cars of our own, so gas money was no longer a big deal.

Twenty plus years later, gas money is something to consider again. Gas here (at least on Friday) is $4.33/gallon. Although the minimum wage is now $7/hour (it's probably more, but not by more than a couple of dimes), I'd expect that car insurance has also climbed up to make sure that it isn't any easier for teens to own a car.

But it isn't just teens that have to worry about gas money now. Last month, six of us went down to Holmdel, NJ (114 miles one way) to see Iron Maiden. We carpooled in Fran's minivan. Yes, nothing screams metal more than half a dozen guys, ranging in age from their mid-30's to early 40's, in a minivan. We had to stop for gas on the way home after the show. I don't know what it gets for mileage, but it can't be that much. Although gas is cheaper in NJ than CT, Fran was still looking at spending about $50. So here we were again, chipping in for gas money, just like in high school.

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DED

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