Behind the Surge

No doubt that you've heard that "the surge is working." And you'll be sure to hear it for the rest of this presidential campaign. Yes, violence is down, though it hasn't been eradicated by any stretch of the imagination. Daily attacks during the past two months have averaged about 25 to 30, down from about 160 to 170 a little more than a year ago. In Baghdad's West Rasheed area murders fell from 553 in January 2007 to 20 in January 2008. IED attacks fell from 178 in February 2007 to 5 in February 2008 (source). A glance at this chart shows that US troop deaths in Iraq have been trending downward. 510 Iraqis were killed in July, including civilians and security force members, a 75% drop from the 2,021 deaths recorded by the same method in July 2007 (source).

While the increase in troop levels may have played a role in bringing about a less violent Iraq, there's more going on here than meets the eye. If merely throwing more troops at a war zone were enough to achieve victory, then wouldn't the Vietnam War have been won?

Here's what I believe is responsible for the decrease in violence:

1. The Iraqi army has stepped up.


2. The Sunni's are accepting their new role in Iraq.


3. General Petraeus has focused on winning "hearts and minds" having realized that "we cannot kill our way out of this endeavor."


4. A treasure trove of al Qaeda documents were seized (read on).

Al Qaeda has been likened to a peer-to-peer network, a mutant supply chain, and a franchise. As such, somewhere along the way it ceased being one of these nimble forms (at least the branch in Iraq). It became a bureaucracy. Yes, the world's foremost terrorist organization is more like your local branch of the DMV. While this is no less a scary beast to face, it ceases being a swift slasher and is instead a lumbering thug.

Late last year, several hundred al Qaeda documents were captured in Iraq. They turned out to be personnel files. It seems that if you wanted to martyr yourself you had to fill out the requisite paperwork.

The personnel records are unusually formal, typed on letterhead that reads "Islamic State of Iraq," one of the aliases for al Qaeda in Iraq.

Foreign fighters were asked to provide basic biographical details, such as birth date, address, and telephone number, as well as questions aimed at double-checking who referred them to the organization. One Algerian fighter named Aydir describes three coordinators he met in Syria before he was smuggled into Iraq. The first was "tall and strong," the second was "tall and hunchbacked," and the other was "tan and weak."

Part of it is simply about logistics. "When you're moving people across international borders, you want to make sure you're keeping track of them," says Hoffman. "But it is also part of a hubris that this is more of an organization than it actually is and to impress the recruits in this martyrdom pipeline that they really are part of something bigger than they are."

There is also an aspect of quality control. One question asks recruits: "How did the coordinator treat you in Syria?" Most of the fighters replied, "Well." One even enthuses, "Very excellent." But a few complain of being locked up in an apartment in Syria. One Saudi who arrived in Syria with $1,000 writes, "Not good. Loua'aie took all the money and we are not happy and [he] give us back $200."

For Al Qaeda in Iraq, which relies on a loose network of operatives in Syria to help funnel fighters into Iraq, the forms allow leaders to monitor the reliability of their network. "You have the leadership who may be highly committed, but when you get to the handlers, it may be more criminal networks," says Lt. Col. Joseph Felter, who runs the Combating Terrorism Center. "They might be putting in some safeguards to try to identify those individuals who are less ideologically committed down the chain."

I don't know how many of these would-be martyrs were captured before they killed themselves. But if our military has the names of the recruiters, then capturing these guys severely cuts into the supply chain. Maybe that's why the number of women suicide bombers has increased.

I wish that these developments had occurred the first year we were in Iraq. We could've been spared 4,000 deaths, our military's readiness, and hundreds of billions of dollars. The Iraqi's could've been spared untold tens of thousands of deaths, the destruction of homes, towns, and their healthcare infrastructure. Then again, maybe we would've just invaded Iran that much sooner.

Withdrawal certainly won't happen now, even if the Iraqi's tell us to leave. The decrease in violence only strengthens his position. We all know that W intended to keep us in Iraq no matter what, in order to push the neocon fantasy of a American Oil Company Empire under the guise of a democratic Middle East. "Oh sweet Osama! You have provided us with the opportunity of a lifetime!"

Congress has abdicated its Constitutional authority so they're no help. The question is, are the American people tired of this vision of perpetual war for the sake of fattening up no bid contract corporations that lap at the trough of tax dollars or are they so addicted to oil that they'll believe every OPEC member had a hand in 9/11 and every square mile of this country needs to be drilled for the black gold that keeps their Escalade, Expedition, Yukon, Tahoe and Hummer singing along in materialistic bliss? I guess we'll find out in about 3 months.

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DED