Sunday, November 25, 2007

Breathe This!


Yeah, that's a picture of Beijing taken by Tony Law for Wired magazine. We're so quick to condemn our own cities, but this country hasn't looked this bad since the 70's.
"The air isn't always so awful: Sometimes the wind sweeps through, revealing a blue canopy overhead. But on a bad day — come August, say, when temperatures approach 100 degrees — the atmosphere around Beijing becomes a photochemical bouillabaisse of coal smog, steel-mill spume, and tailpipe crud, mingled with concrete dust and baked in the oven formed by the surrounding hills.

Just the place for the summer Olympics."

Read the full article.

China is desperately trying to change its image in time for the 2008 Summer Olympics. They're pulling out all the stops to try and green Beijing in time. And when you've got an autocratic, one party government, there's no debate. The order is given and you'd better get it done. That's not to say there isn't a bit of corruption along the way.

While there wasn't any mention of nukes in this article (I'm surprised after this one), there is mention of cleaning up coal ("They're retrofitting the city's big power plants with scrubbers — standard-issue in the US and Europe since the 1980s but still a novelty in China."), putting a limit on construction ("a ban on excavation at the city's 3,000-plus non-Olympic construction sites — the source of up to one-third of the capital's airborne dust"), and forcing drivers to leave their cars at home ("taking an estimated 800,000 cars and trucks off the road") during the games all in an effort to make sure the skies stay clear during the games.

But Beijing itself isn't the only culprit for its pollution. "70 percent of Beijing's summer particulate pollution originates outside the city." They might have to shut down everything upwind for a couple of weeks to ensure the sky is clear during the games.
"City officials referred vaguely to "hard measures" — reportedly including forced, last-minute vacations not only for factory workers but also for the capital's resident army of civil servants. Whether they can strong-arm upwind provinces — including much of China's industrial heartland — into blowing off a couple weeks' worth of GDP to clear the air over rival Beijing is an open question."

If the world sees images of athletes hacking from respiratory illnesses or sooty skies, it'll be a PR nightmare for China.

Seed magazine did some investigation of their own. They found much of the same thing.
"The litany of environmental challenges that China faces is shocking, even by the enormous proportions of all things Chinese. The International Energy Agency predicts that this year or next China will surpass the United States as the world's No. 1 producer of greenhouse gases. As 14,000 new cars take to the road every day and a new coal-fired plant opens every week, China's CO2 emissions are on course to triple by 2050; the country's newest coal plants alone will cancel out the global emissions reductions sought by the Kyoto Protocol in the next five years. The glaciers on the Tibetan plateau, the source of the three major rivers that supply much of China's water, are shrinking by 7 percent a year, causing droughts and water shortages across the western part of the country. And in cities throughout China, temperatures this winter hit record highs."

Read the full article.

And it's more than the Olympics. China's meteoric rise to economic superpower has come at a price.
"Chinese scientists have predicted that the Yangtze River will die by 2011, and with two-thirds of other rivers polluted, more than 340 million Chinese lack access to clean drinking water. An estimated 400,000 Chinese die of pollution every year. By the government's own estimates released in December 2006, climate change is occurring in China at alarming rates, with temperatures due to increase by 1.3 to 2.1 degrees Celsius by 2020. China is unveiling forward-thinking policies and pushing alternative energy because it has no other choice."

Even the normally docile citizenry are reacting.
"In the village of Huaxi, in eastern Zhejiang province, peasants took notice when, following the construction of 13 pesticide and fertilizer plants, babies were born deformed and the river started to run brown. After unsuccessfully petitioning the government, the villagers erected roadblocks in April 2005 to prevent shipments from leaving the plants. When the authorities arrived to remove the roadblocks, the villagers overturned at least a dozen police cars and stripped officers of their uniforms."

How long will it be before urban dwellers react similarly?
"In World Bank assessments, Lanzhou has at several points earned the dubious distinction of most polluted city in the world (15 other Chinese cities join it on the top-20 list)."

But while things are certainly hellish, China is throwing money at the problem. "The Chinese have purchased 35 million solar water heaters, more than the rest of the world combined." But in their haste, they're making mistakes.
"Entire wind farms have been built so quickly that the infrastructure to connect them to the grid wasn't integrated into the plan, and so they sit, huge aeolian props thumping into the constant breeze, powering nothing. In July 2005, turbines from an Inner Mongolian wind farm collapsed, killing six workers. A subsequent investigation revealed that the accident was caused by hasty deadlines and failure to observe construction standards."

When the Olympics are done, what then? Will China revert back to its sooty ways? 70% of its energy is produced by cheap coal, and it takes alot of energy to grow an economy as big and as fast as China. With any luck, the green policies will stick. Sometimes being #1 isn't all that's it cracked up to be.

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DED

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Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Fuel Cell Cars: Sooner or Later?

During a recent visit from my parents, I was out in the Camry with Dad, demonstrating how it ran and the conversation eventually wandered to fuel cells. He was under the impression that his next car might be powered by a fuel cell. I disagreed. I've been keeping an eye out for signs of progress and though there's been some promising developments, there hasn't been any indication that it's going to happen any time soon.

He uses this as an example. I did a bit of a double take. What's going on? 4 years to market? Where are they going to get the hydrogen?

I pointed him to the Popular Science article predicting what cars we'll be driving in 20 years. They predicted that Hydrogen powered fuel cells would account for only 2% of the market. These guys are about as pumped up on tech as anyone can be so for them to be skeptical means that it doesn't look good.

On top of that, Ballard Power announced that they're selling their automotive division to Ford and Daimler. Ballard retains the right to utilize that technology as it sees fit (buses seem high on its list). The annual savings? $15 million. Now, if fuel cell cars were right around the corner, wouldn't Ballard just try and stick it out?

Now this could just be a "dog and pony show" as Popular Science put it. And there's going to have to be more than 3 cities than have Hydrogen available to drivers to make this work. And the price? I haven't heard anything under 6 figures yet. If car manufacturers can't get that price down to under $30k, they're not going to sell too many of them. Econoboxes, hybrids and 100% electrics (new and conversions) are going to dominate the market for a long time.

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DED

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Friday, November 09, 2007

Homeland Insecurity

I've noticed that Discover magazine has broadened its coverage to include politics, at least where it treads upon science. The 2004 presidential election seemed to be the official start of said coverage. Discover compared the records of W and Kerry on science. I thought that it was a fair and non-partisan look at the two. Not everyone agreed and a few, blind idiots in my opinion, canceled their subscriptions. How many? No idea. The magazine's still here so it couldn't have been that bad.

Earlier this year, they focused on Iraq. "Dead Men Walking" highlighted the dramatic increase in traumatic brain injuries among our soldiers while "Iraq's Medical Meltdown" revealed how deplorable health care is for Iraqis.

The latest foray, "Homeland Insecurity", delves into our response to the threat of terrorism here at home in our post 9/11 world. It recounts tales of pork that would make even the most modest of financial conservatives sick. Primarily, it shoots down the fear mongering and hysteria that nearly everyone either purports or has fallen victim to with facts. Dirty bombs and bioterrorism are shot down as being impractical when simpler and safer (for the terrorists to deliver) methods abound. Some fears are supported, like chemical attacks, and Tom Ridge's suggestion to have plastic tarps and duct tape on hand is even lauded.

If there's one thing that we should be doing it's bolstering our healthcare system. Hospitals are ill equipped to handle day-to-day crises now. In the event of a natural catastrophe or a chemical warfare strike, hospitals would quickly find themselves overwhelmed. After what we saw with Katrina, perhaps all that talk that preparedness starts at home has something to it after all.

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DED

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Thursday, November 08, 2007

Strange Bedfellows

When I heard about Pat Robertson endorsing Rudy Giuliani for President I, like so many other people who follow politics, said, "What?" Giuliani's socially liberal views run diametrically opposed to Robertson's so what's with the endorsement?

Theories run rampant. Here's two:

The mighty coalition of Evangelical Christians is fragmenting. Its leaders are old and a new generation is on the rise and it doesn't quite see eye to eye with its elders (see article). Also, some of the old guard have threatened to abandon the Republican party if a pro-choice candidate was the nominee. Hmmmm, who could they be talking about?

Robertson, whose failed predictions of destruction would render him laughable if it wasn't for his scary political views (see Wiki), has lost clout within the ranks. This could be his attempt to side with a winner and ride his coattails to glory. In polls, Rudy is seen as the only candidate who can beat Hillary, someone who the religious right can't abide the thought of being President whatsoever. But if Hillary and Rudy share some of the same views on abortion, gay marriage, evolution what other pressing social issues matter to the religious right?

Another possibility is that Pat wants the war with Islamic countries to continue. Rudy has been unflinching in his support for the Iraq war and I'm sure wouldn't flinch from lending BushCheney a hand in rattling a few sabers at Iran. But that would mean ol' Pat's bloodlust is stronger than his revulsion to Rudy's social positions, or perhaps he thinks he can sway him a bit.

Another odd endorsement was Sam Brownback endorsing John McCain for president. Brownback's views are much closer to Huckabee's so his supporters are probably wondering why he went with McCain. I have no idea. Maybe McCain promised him a cabinet position if he threw some good ol' Kansas Conservative support behind him. It's a repugnant thought to me, but I wouldn't put it past the desperate McCain.

Only another 12 more months of this. Woo hoo!

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DED

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