What Housing Bubble?
At least that's the question Toll Brothers seem to be asking. Apparently, they're not concerned about this year's developments and the horrible gnashing sound emanating from the banks as the credit crisis deepens. But houses aren't places to live in, they're assets!
If you're unfamiliar with Toll Brothers, they're a luxury home builder. They have a few developments in my state. Townhouses in dense residential areas are the more affordable places they build with prices starting just under $300,000. When they have the room to spread out, homes double in price.
Back in 2002, they decided that my town was ripe for another one of their housing developments. They informed the zoning commission that they intended to build 129 units on the 22 acre site. Not only did the zoning commission reject them, but the Inland Wetlands Commission did too, due to the fact that the site is wetlands. The road that construction trucks and moving vans would have to take to get to the site is awfully narrow. I can't say that for all the times I've driven that road, and I've taken it quite a bit (it's a shortcut to the Danbury airport, the mall, and I-84 west to NY), that I've ever seen a truck on it.
The site lies between two small ridges and water collects in the valley. Except for this year, due to the drought, the area is typically marsh. During years we have above average snow or rain, flooding occurs. No one ever thought that anyone would try to build on it.
Unhappy with my town's decision, Toll Brothers took it to court. And won. The town recently went for a compromise and got Toll Brothers to agree to half the number of units (That's the best link I can provide. The newspaper just redesigned its site so old stuff has been truncated).
It doesn't matter that the "National Association of Home Builders said its housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell two points to 18 in October, the lowest level since the index began in Jan. 1985."
It's not like my town needs more luxury townhouses. I didn't think that it needed any, but a similar development is about halfway completed about a mile and a half away in a non-wetland area on one of the main roads (Route 53) into town. That site was owned by a construction company, for as long as I've lived here, and was an eyesore, though trees hid it from view.
The good news? If Toll Brothers is successful, it'll mean a larger tax base for the town. I don't think that makes up for the bad news though.
While they claim to respect the environment, I have to wonder how Toll Brothers will explain away this latest conquest.
UPDATE: The first graph, here, is very telling.
\_/
DED
If you're unfamiliar with Toll Brothers, they're a luxury home builder. They have a few developments in my state. Townhouses in dense residential areas are the more affordable places they build with prices starting just under $300,000. When they have the room to spread out, homes double in price.
Back in 2002, they decided that my town was ripe for another one of their housing developments. They informed the zoning commission that they intended to build 129 units on the 22 acre site. Not only did the zoning commission reject them, but the Inland Wetlands Commission did too, due to the fact that the site is wetlands. The road that construction trucks and moving vans would have to take to get to the site is awfully narrow. I can't say that for all the times I've driven that road, and I've taken it quite a bit (it's a shortcut to the Danbury airport, the mall, and I-84 west to NY), that I've ever seen a truck on it.
The site lies between two small ridges and water collects in the valley. Except for this year, due to the drought, the area is typically marsh. During years we have above average snow or rain, flooding occurs. No one ever thought that anyone would try to build on it.
Unhappy with my town's decision, Toll Brothers took it to court. And won. The town recently went for a compromise and got Toll Brothers to agree to half the number of units (That's the best link I can provide. The newspaper just redesigned its site so old stuff has been truncated).
It doesn't matter that the "National Association of Home Builders said its housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell two points to 18 in October, the lowest level since the index began in Jan. 1985."
It's not like my town needs more luxury townhouses. I didn't think that it needed any, but a similar development is about halfway completed about a mile and a half away in a non-wetland area on one of the main roads (Route 53) into town. That site was owned by a construction company, for as long as I've lived here, and was an eyesore, though trees hid it from view.
The good news? If Toll Brothers is successful, it'll mean a larger tax base for the town. I don't think that makes up for the bad news though.
While they claim to respect the environment, I have to wonder how Toll Brothers will explain away this latest conquest.
UPDATE: The first graph, here, is very telling.
\_/
DED
Labels: economy, environment
posted by DED at 9:05 PM
7 Comments:
Sorry about that ded. I know how you feel. Building houses is a license to print money these days. Bob Toll should know, he cashed out at the top of the market. The pensioners, of course, get crumbs.
I wish thermal solar power plants were a license to print money, instead of housing, because we have to many houses already, and it is getting ridiculous. The demands placed on water, electricity, and sewer will be enormous, and it won't matter once the houses get built, because then they are there, even if the price goes to half what it is now. I can't help the feeling that the PTB is planning another huge flux of immigration, on top of the Mexican invasion. They only react, coming up with ever dumber solutions to problems which should have never become an issue in the first place. Then you get what we have here today.
This country is going down hill fast now. It breaks my heart to see it destroyed like this, because there really were some nice areas in this country not too long ago. Twenty years from now the young people will never have an opportunity to do the things I took for granted twenty years ago. My old stomping grounds have all been mutilated to make room for more houses. I was a lucky kid, very lucky. Fishing in wilderness areas. Duck hunting where I had an entire huge lake to myself. Riding motorcycles up huge washout gullies. Sad, really sad. One in a quadrillion shot, evolutionary wise. Sorry to be so long winded. Good luck to you and yours.
Even if immigration were to continue at its pace, its not like these builders are making affordable homes. It's not like we're being invaded by rich people. No, it's the poor. Do they expect the middle class to upgrade to bigger homes?
I completely agree. Too many houses are being built. Too many strip malls too.
In 2006, I visited my folks down at their place in Florida (they've since sold it and moved to Tenn.). I couldn't get over how much it had built up since I lived there. Places that were just scrub pine and palmetto trees were subdivisions. And forget Orlando. It gave me an idea about what the Vegas building boom was like.
There's a grassroots movement to preserve open space, but it's been a real fight. Towns that are feeling the strain of taxes want to turn it into something that'll bring in revenue, while many people (myself included) don't want to see our towns turn into a patchwork quilt of subdivisions. The only way I see to please both sides is to cut town budgets. But then the school lobby screams that if we don't support the budgets that the children will suffer (therefore if you vote down a budget increase you must hate kids). It's just ugly.
This country is going down hill fast now.
Yeah, we can thank all the people who voted for W. He sure as hell sped up the process. I hate rushing time along (because it means that I'm just that much older), but I can't wait for that asshole to be gone. I know the next prez has to be at least somewhat better, maybe stop the country's hemorrhaging. As bad as we've had, W makes them all seem so much better than they were.
Hi ded,
I saw this and I was wondering if you have noticed something similar in your area?
I have also been pondering the re-election of Joe Lieberman to the senate. Still after over a year it still troubles me. Does this signify that a majority of voters support the war? I can't understand how people can claim to oppose the war in Iraq and yet even after Joe loses the Dem nod he still goes on to win the bid. He is the most pro-war candidate in the whole congress almost. Do you think the republicans banded with the dem defectors to create a de-facto majority "war party"? Any input would be appreciated. I hope all is well.
I saw this and I was wondering if you have noticed something similar in your area?
Yes, I have! I was considering posting something about it. I thought that it was drought related but what I've read says that it's temperature related instead.
I have also been pondering the re-election of Joe Lieberman to the senate.
Ugh, you had to remind me.
Still after over a year it still troubles me.
He's a daily reminder that many people here just don't get it or are too stupid to see through him.
Does this signify that a majority of voters support the war?
Every poll I've seen shows that the majority of voters are opposed to the war, sometimes as high as 70%.
I can't understand how people can claim to oppose the war in Iraq and yet even after Joe loses the Dem nod he still goes on to win the bid. He is the most pro-war candidate in the whole congress almost. Do you think the republicans banded with the dem defectors to create a de-facto majority "war party"?
Joe lost the nod from state Democrats because of his pro-war stance. Yes, Republicans in the state abandoned their own candidate (he had some "irregularities") and went with social conservative/pro-war Lieberman. Joe did put out some crap to mellow his pro-war image somewhat and some people were stupid enough to buy into it. Another group didn't want CT to lose the political clout that comes with years in DC. Stupid rationalization if you ask me. You should stick with an asshole who doesn't represent your values because he has lots of experience? WTF?
But also some people bought into the crap that Lamont was some sort of crazy liberal extremist. The guy's a successful Greenwich businessman. It's not like he's going to get crazy with socialism. He was also perceived as a one issue candidate, which was wrong. It was just the #1 issue.
Joe's propaganda did the trick. He won by 100,000 votes (10%). So, we're stuck with the guy until 2012, unless W decides to add him to his cabinet as a "bipartisan" gesture.
Hi ded,
I've just been thinking. The majority of voters in this country are liars, just like the pols. They pretend like they are against the wars and the status quo, but time comes to vote they go for more of the same. I do not believe it is name recognition. I think they like things the way they are. If so, whatever bad befalls this country from our imperialistic ways, the voters have earned the consequences in spades.
I don't know if voters are liars or if they just believe the lies that they're told. I'm inclined to believe the latter. If you've got one candidate telling you all of this bad news and the other one comes along and tells you good news, that things aren't as bad as the other guy says they are, then chances are the voters are going with the good news guy.
And ignorance is a big problem. It makes lies more believable.
Good point ded. Far be it from me to argue that Americans are intelligent and well informed.I still say they have a deep seated fear, and they are worried about gasoline supplies and don't care how we get it. But the rest of the stuff, yeah they're stupid. They don't call them sheeple for nothing.
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